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Oscar Roundup- The Race So Far

 

Believe it or not, I’ve actually been tracking every awards, every top 10 list, and so on for Awards Season. Based on these picks, I’ve come up with a basic “rundown” of how the race is shaping up. You can’t trust Oscar pundits out there, because they’re still shilling their own picks. Take AwardsDaily, for example, whose sole job is to track these types of awards. They’re listing Jeremy Irons for Supporting Actor as a possibility, despite the fact that he hasn’t shown up on ANY awards list other than their own. In their own writings, they keep trying to make things happen, that will never happen. This is a rundown of the real race, and who has the best chance of winning.

BEST PICTURE

Right now, this race is strongly between The Artist and The Descendants. Both films have had almost equally strong showings up to this point. Both are guaranteed, money-down, locks for Best Picture nominations at this point. Also a lock is Tree of Life, which is a polarizing love-it-or-hate-it film. The way the Academy votes, however, will help it. Because those who love it, believe it is the best picture of the year, and will give it enough #1 votes to make the cut. Now, since the Academy changed the rules so that anywhere from 5-10 films can be nominated, it gets a bit tricky after that. The best guess for the final two top 5 films are Hugo and Drive, which currently round out the top 5 in the race. However, The Help, Moneyball, Midnight In Paris, War Horse, and Bridesmaids should not be counted out. As longshots, I would note 50/50, My Week With Marilyn, Shame, Take Shelter, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close, The Ides of March, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, Margin Call, and The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo. Anything else is unlikely at this point to pick up any kind of steam to get nominated. It is possible that films like Dragon Tattoo and Extremely Loud will get more steam once released, which could push them to the top of the longshot pile.

BEST DIRECTOR:

Believe it or not, Martin Scorsece (Hugo), is winning this race currently. Probably because he’s a well respected director. He’s only slightly edging out the relatively unknown Michel Hazavanicus (The Artist). Both are locks at this point. Likely to round out the top 5 are Alexander Payne (The Descendants), Nicholas Winding Refn (Drive), and Terrence Malik (Tree of Life). Though, Woody Allen (Midnight In Paris) is really close, and Steven Spielberg (War Horse) could sneak in. This is NOT David Fincher’s year, nor Stephen Daldry’s. I wouldn’t expect to see either in this race, even if their films do sneak nominations.

 

BEST ACTOR:

This is currently a tie between George Clooney (The Descendants) and Michael Fassbender (Shame), though don’t be fooled. Michael Fassbender is by no means a lock. His NC-17 film could cause him to miss out on a nomination, as a “SHOCK” to everyone. NC-17 has yet to be an accepted rating in the industry, or respected at least, and Michael needs all the support he can to break into this category and break new ground. Also likely for a nomination Brad Pitt (Moneyball) and Jean Dujardin (The Artist). Looking for the last slot, you’ll see either Michael Shannon (Take Shelter), Leonardo Dicaprio (J. Edgar), Gary Oldman (Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy), or maybe even Ryan Gosling (Drive). No one else. Sorry Woody.

BEST ACTRESS

She’s leading the race now, so I’m banking on Michelle Williams (My Week With Marilyn) to win this thing. She’ll be nominated against Tilda Swinton (We Need To Talk About Kevin), Meryl Streep (The Iron Lady), and Viola Davis (The Help). Filling the last slot will be either Elizabeth Olsen (Martha Marcy Mae Marlene), Charlize Theron (Young Adult), Glenn Close (Albert Nobbs), or Rooney Mara (The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo). As a LONGSHOT, I would also note Kirsten Dunst (Melancholia), though I seriously doubt she gets the fifth spot.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:

This is a deadly close race between Albert Brooks (Drive) and Christopher Plummer (Beginners). Both are guaranteed nominations at this point. They’re so far ahead of the others, it’s silly. The other 3 space fillers will likely be Kenneth Branaugh (My Week With Marilyn), and two of the following: Jonah Hill (Moneyball), Nick Nolte (Warrior), Patton Oswalt (Young Adult), Andy Serkis (Rise of the Planet of the Apes), Viggo Mortensen (A Dangerous Method), Armie Hammer (J. Edgar), or Max Von Sydow (Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close). I’d count all others out at this point.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

This is the closest, most wide open race. Tracking currently as the top contenders, Octavia Spencer (The Help), Jessica Chastain (The Help), and Shailene Woodley (The Descendants), seem like the most surefire things, but nothing in this category is a lock. Right behind them are Melissa McCarthy (Bridesmaids), Bernice Bejo (The Artist), Janet McTeer (Albert Nobbs), Carey Mulligan (Shame), Jessica Chastain (Tree of Life), and Vanessa Redgrave (Corolanius). Again, no one is safe though.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:

This race is only between The Descendants and Moneyball. One of those two films will win, both will be nominated. The race is too much in their favor at this point. Vying for the other 3 spots are The Help, Hugo, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close, and Drive.

 

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:

You’re looking at a 3 way race between Midnight In Paris, The Artist, and 50/50. All three should be locks. The last two spots could go to Win Win, The Ides of March, A Separation, Tree of Life, Beginners, or Young Adult.

ANIMATED FEATURE

And the Oscar goes to…. Rango. With the biggest gap between 1st and 2nd place, Rango is killing the competition. Also a lock for a nomination is Adventures of Tin Tin. Puss In Boots and Arthur Christmas look strong for 3rd and 4th, with either Kung Fu Panda 2, Winnie The Pooh, or maybe even Cars 2 as the final nomination.

BEST DOCUMENTARY:

A really odd category, since the Oscars have already shortened the list. They’ve left out the current second place finisher Cave of Forgotten Dreams, which has been sweeping the lists, but didn’t make the final cut. That means it’s basically Project Nim for the win. The closest eligible documentary is 10 points beneath him with Buck. Other potential nominees (that are eligible) are Undefeated, Pina, Bill Cunningham: New York, and We Were Here.

BEST FOREIGN FILM:

A Separation will win this category. Le Havre will be nominated. Other than that… most of the films that are getting other nominations are not eligible for awards, like The Skin I Live In or 13 Assassins, because most of them haven’t opened in America, and will open next year on the hopes of riding their Oscar nominations.

A few more quick thoughts…

BEST ART DIRECTION:

Hugo, The Artist, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows pt 2, Tree of Life, and War Horse

BEST COSTUME DESIGN:

The Artist, Jane Eyre, Hugo, The Help, My Week With Marilyn

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY:

Tree Of Life (WINNER), Hugo, The Artist, War Horse, and Drive

BEST MAKEUP:

Albert Nobbs, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, and J Edgar

FILM EDITING:

Hugo, Drive, The Artist, War Horse, Girl With The Dragon Tattoo

BEST SOUND:

Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows pt 2, Hugo, Super 8, Tree of Life, War Horse

SOUND EDITING:

Drive, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows pt 2, Super 8, Tree of Life, War Horse

VISUAL EFFECTS:

Rise of the Planet of the Apes, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows pt 2, Super 8, Hugo

BEST SCORE:

The Artist, Drive, Hugo, War Horse, Girl With The Dragon Tattoo

BEST ORIGINAL SONG:

The Living Proof- The Help

Hello Hello- Gnomeo and Juliet

Life Is A Happy Song- The Muppets

Lay Your Head Down- Albert Nobbs

Man or Muppet- The Muppets

 

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